The White House released a memo on Saturday estimating that between 8.2 and 9.2 million Americans could lose their health insurance if the proposed budget reconciliation bill fails to pass.
The analysis, titled "Health Insurance Opportunity Cost if 2025 Proposed Budget Reconciliation Bill Does Not Pass," was produced by the Council of Economic Advisers and warned that, should the budget not be brought into action, the country could enter a "major recession."
Newsweek has contacted the White House via email for comment.
Why It Matters
The White House's memo comes as the debate in Congress over the House Republicans' health care and budget agenda has intensified.
Many in the health care industry have been warning that the proposed budget could lead to millions of people being pushed off the Medicaid program, however, in the memo, the White House is arguing the opposite—that the budget would save millions from losing their health insurance.
What To Know
The memo projected a dramatic rise in the uninsured population if the legislation known as the 2025 Reconciliation Bill stalls in Congress amid economic downturn concerns.
The White House Council of Economic Advisers memo assumed a baseline of roughly 27 million uninsured Americans in 2025.
It estimated that, without the budget bill and in the event of a recession, the number of uninsured people could climb to approximately 36 million, approaching the 50 million uninsured before the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) was implemented.
The Council of Economic Advisers projected that the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, set for 2026, could trigger a recession, and in turn lead to a 4 percent decrease in GDP over the course of two years.
The memo estimated unemployment could rise by four percentage points, potentially leading to 6.5 million job losses.
Noting that 60 percent of these jobs provided employer-sponsored health insurance, the memo reported that approximately 3.9 million people could then lose coverage.
The memo anticipated a 15 percent drop in health care coverage among the 22 million people enrolled in individual or marketplace plans, amounting to another 3.3 million losing coverage.
An additional 500,000 to 1 million people could lose coverage through Medicaid or ACA-subsidized plans, the memo shared.
While the White House's projections focused on implications if the budget bill fails, opponents have voiced concerns about what would happen if the bill passes.
Republicans argue that it is a necessary step to rein in federal spending and reduce the deficit, however, critics say the cuts disproportionately affect low- and middle-income Americans who rely on ACA subsidies to maintain health coverage.
The potential scaling back of the ACA, as well as other policies, in the plan is expected to see more than 13 million lose Medicaid coverage by 2034, according to research by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
What People Are Saying
The White House, wrote in a memo: "Let's assume that expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts in 2026 and other shocks trigger a moderate to severe recession. Such a recession will be driven by higher tax rates which will result in a reduction in economic activity that will lead to significant unemployment. This in turn will strain state finances and likely lead to reductions in generosity of benefits including Medicaid for states providing greater benefits than the average Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion state. Based on our assumptions, we estimate a net increase in uninsured of potentially 8.2 to 9.2 million people if the 2025 Proposed Budget Reconciliation Bill does not pass."
Representative Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said, according to The Hill: "I like work requirements. People that are able-bodied, mentally healthy and all that should be working if you're working age. Able-bodied people still get Medicaid, but you should be looking for work, trying to improve your skills or working. And I think most Americans want that."
Democratic Representatives Frank Pallone and Richard Neal and Senator Ron Wyden, said: "Cold, hard math paints a grim picture— the Republicans' long pursued golden goose of dismantling and undermining the ACA means millions of Americans will see their premiums skyrocket and their care reduced or outright stolen. By not extending the improvements to the Premium Tax Credits, by using reconciliation to codify cruel new rules that will make it harder for people to get care, Trump and Republicans are opening the floodgates for the biggest theft of health coverage we have ever seen. The nonpartisan CBO is now telling us that 5.7 million stand to lose their care if Republicans get their way on the ACA, with the number rising when you factor in their cruel Medicaid cuts and additional legislative changes."
They added: "Through their budget, their vision is for a poorer, sicker America. If they choose to not extend these credits, they are choosing to rip health care from millions. The horrific consequences will lie squarely at their feet."
What Happens Next
The House is expected to vote on the budget bill before the Memorial Day deadline set by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. Further projections of insurance coverage losses will depend on congressional action, economic performance, and whether the bill's tax cuts and social program reductions become law.
Advocacy groups and Senate Republicans continue to debate the proposed changes.
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