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This time will be different.
That's the message we're hearing from corporate executives commanding the AI charge and from other leaders whose fields will likely be altered by the newfangled rush of automation.
In a memo to employees earlier this week, Amazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a "once-in-a-lifetime" technology that will lead to a smaller workforce at the company, the nation's second-largest private employer, because of efficiency gains.
For corporations, the mood is growth, productivity, and shareholder value. But the news added fuel to the fiery concerns that AI will massively displace workers.
The concern that machines will take jobs isn't new, of course. But the scope of change, and the potential for new modes of labor and invention, are driving the latest bout of anxiety in workers — amid the corporate excitement for employers.
The current labor market, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed Wednesday, is solid. But they're watching this space closely.
Board Governor Michael Barr, in a speech at the Reykjavík Economic Conference last month, outlined a scenario where AI doesn't just inspire incremental progress but overhauls the economy, prompting sweeping social change.
"The amazing potential capabilities and breadth of applications associated with AI — many of which are already apparent — make it worth asking whether this time may be different," Barr said. "But alongside the kinds of labor market disruptions seen in past episodes of revolutionary technological change, we will need to consider the possibility of more sweeping changes in the way we work."
In his press conference Wednesday responding to a question about the Amazon news, Fed Chair Powell stressed that the question is about whether the technology will "augment" or "replace" labor, which is "really hard to know."
But, Powell stressed, "I wouldn't overread a couple of data points, because AI should be creating jobs at the same time."
It's not clear yet how drastic the AI-inspired labor changes will be, but the data points are coming in and will continue.
And the Fed, again in the "wait and see" mode afforded by a healthy labor market, can count them.
"We don't have a house view on [AI taking jobs]," Powell said. "But this is going to be a very important question for some time."
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