Pope, Bumrah, Bashir - how England v India will be won and lost

England v India - first Test

Venue: Headingley Dates: 20-24 June Time: 11:00 BST

Coverage: Ball-by-ball radio commentary on BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra and BBC Sounds. In-play video clips and text commentary on the BBC Sport website and app. Today at the Test on BBC iPlayer and BBC Two each night.

England begin a huge period of Test cricket against India at Headingley on Friday.

The five-match contest between Ben Stokes' side and a new-look India is brimful of intrigue, including superstar performers on both sides.

BBC Sport and data analysts Cricviz look at the key battles and where the series will be won and lost.

England's biggest, and probably only, selection decision for the first Test came down on the side of the status quo. The potential of Jacob Bethell has been resisted in favour of long-term number three Ollie Pope.

England need some consistency from their vice-captain. Overall, an average of 43.06 at first-drop is more than respectable, but Pope often veers between feast and famine.

In 2024, Pope made three centuries, including an all-timer 196 to help beat India in Hyderabad. In his other 27 innings across the year, Pope did not pass 10 on 13 occasions, more than any other top-seven batter in the same period.

It is a broader trend across Pope's career. Of the 3,301 runs the 27-year-old has compiled in 98 innings, almost 34% have come in only six knocks. When Pope gets in, he can cash in. It is the getting in that is the problem, especially with a false-shot percentage of 18.4 – the highest of any regular Test number three in the past six years.

The bad news for Pope is he is about to come up against one of his nemeses in Indian magician Jasprit Bumrah. Though Pope is not alone in struggling against the best fast bowler in the world, the five times he has been dismissed by Bumrah is only outstripped by the seven dismissals of retired India off-spinner Ravichandran Ashwin.

The length where Pope struggles most against pace against in this country, 7-8m from the stumps, is most frequently targeted by Bumrah and likely new-ball partner Mohammed Siraj.

In addition, 39% of Pope's dismissals to pace bowlers in England have been bowled, an unusually high frequency, and a target for Bumrah, who himself bowls more batters than other pace bowlers.

Speaking of Bumrah, there is perhaps no man on either side more capable of winning the series single-handedly than the India paceman. Pound for pound, Bumrah is the best cricketer in the world and compiling a career that will put him among the greatest fast bowlers.

How England play, or survive, Bumrah may well determine the outcome. The India management have indicated he may only play three of the five Tests, though the extra rest period after the first and third Tests could mean Bumrah sneaks in a fourth.

Remarkably, Bumrah has played only 12 Tests at home. The bulk of his career, 31 of 45 caps, have come travelling to South Africa, England, New Zealand and Australia. In the 'SENA' countries, most suited to fast bowling, he has 145 wickets, more than any other India bowler, and almost three-quarters of his total 205.

Last year, when England toured India, Bumrah was devastating in short, sharp bursts. In the four Tests he played he bowled fewer than 104 overs, yet still took 19 wickets with a strike-rate under 33. Every spell was electrifying, not unlike Mitchell Johnson's Ashes tear in 2013-14.

Therefore, the key to England playing Bumrah might actually be held in the way they go about tackling the rest of the India bowling.

Besides Siraj the rest of the pace attack is either inexperienced in England or supplemented by all-rounders Shardul Thakur and Nitish Kumar Reddy.

In terms of the spinners that could hold an end, Ravindra Jadeja's career average in England is above 44, and Kuldeep Yadav and Washington Sundar have played one Test in this country between them.

If England can put the other bowlers under pressure, new India skipper Shubman Gill will be forced to increase Bumrah's workload, potentially reducing his potency.

Eighteen months ago, Shoaib Bashir arrived in India as a relative unknown, the fourth choice of four England spinners, spotted by Ben Stokes in a clip on X.

Now he is England's first-choice spinner, happy to concede he is learning his craft on the job and about to face the best players of spin on the planet.

All of India's batters have strong records against off-spinners, including the left-handers, who would ordinarily provide Bashir with a favourable match-up. Indeed, it is left-handers Yashasvi Jaiswal and Rishabh Pant who are most likely to target Bashir.

In general, India like to show aggression against off-spin. Since the beginning of last year, India have attacked 38% of deliveries bowled by off-spinners, behind only the Bazballing English, who got after 53% of balls from offies. The difference is the outcome. India averaged 60, much better than England's 36.

Bashir had an indifferent winter, but looked to have benefitted from some technical tweaks in taking nine wickets in the defeat of Zimbabwe. He is getting closer to the stumps and bowling a better line as a result.

Now he has to withstand the India assault.

This is a revamped India team, without retired batting mainstays Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma. India have not played a Test in this country without Kohli since 2011 and not won here without the King since 2007.

Three of the potential top order – Jaiswal, Sai Sudharsan and Karun Nair – would be playing their first Test in England, while there is a collective inexperience of first-class cricket in this country across the whole squad. Only Nair and KL Rahul average more than 40 against the red ball in the UK, most of Nair's cricket in this country coming in the County Championship for Northants'.

English conditions are often viewed as a final frontier for Indian batters, the challenge to conquer the movement of the Dukes ball.

Of those in the India top order that have played Tests in England before - Rahul, Gill, Pant and Jadeja – length has been key. Collectively, they average only 14 against a good length in this country, rising to 42 against a shorter, hard length.

None of the quartet have ever been dismissed by a bouncer in a Test in this country, highlighting the importance of Chris Woakes, or possibly Sam Cook, when compared to the other pacemen favoured by England.

A potential outlier in the India line-up is opener Jaiswal, who plundered 712 runs across the series when England were beaten 4-1 last year. The left-hander struggles when challenged to defend off the back foot, possibly making a bowler like Brydon Carse a strong option for the home team.

For all the analysis, match-ups and hunches, India tours of the UK often seem to throw up controversies or off-field problems that alter the direction of the series.

In 2021, India were outclassing England and on course for a 3-1 victory, only for the fifth Test to be postponed because of a Covid scare. When India returned a year later to complete contest, they were beaten as England chased a record 378 to square the series at 2-2.

Going further back, there was the row between Jadeja and James Anderson at Trent Bridge in 2014 and the Ian Bell 'run out' at the same ground in 2011. India's last series win here, in 2007, had 'Jellybeangate' at The Oval.

Even deeper into history, India opener Navjot Singh Sidhu walked out of the 1996 tour after a row with captain Mohammad Azharuddin. In 1974, Sudhir Naik was arrested for allegedly shoplifting a pair of socks from the Oxford Street branch of Marks & Spencer.

The best laid plans…