Did we all fool ourselves into thinking the AL West was going to be a battle?

Remember 2016?
At this point, it's been a lifetime, at least relative to the sports landscape we now know. The Olympics were in Rio that summer and we've since seen Games in Toyko and Paris. Steph Curry's Golden State Warriors only had one title at the time. Patrick Mahomes was gearing up for his junior year at Texas Tech and the Chiefs hadn't won the Super Bowl since the 1969 season. Connor McDavid was a rookie. Caitlin Clark was 14 years old.
And the Houston Astros had never won the American League West.
There have been seven full seasons since then and the Astros have won the AL West every single time.
Heading into this year, the Mariners and Rangers were popular picks to win the division. Some people took the Astros, too, of course. They played from behind for most of the first two months. They first took a lead in the division by a half-game on May 30. They had trailed by as many as four games.
In the whole, "give them an inch and they take a mile" vein, the Mariners started to struggle after taking an early lead and the Astros have just gone full throttle and taken over. They've ramped things up in June (14-6 with a +32 run differential) and now have a five-game lead. It shouldn't be surprising. That's just what they do. It'll pain many people to read this, but guess who has the weakest remaining schedule in all of baseball by current opponent's winning percentage? Yep, it's the Astros.
Remarkably, they've done this after trading Kyle Tucker and despite having gotten basically nothing from Yordan Alvarez.
Some of it comes from new blood, like Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes. The veteran, long-time spark plug of the team, Jose Altuve, has been involved. How about the breakout season from shortstop Jeremy Peña?
On the pitching side, it's the breakout season from Hunter Brown and the veteran leader Framber Valdez that lead the charge. The bullpen has been amazing with second-year manager Joe Espada pushing all the right buttons.
For years, they've continued to win with a mix of continuity and newcomers. It's happening again and anyone surprised by this is a fool. Until someone proves otherwise, the Astros own the American League West.
Biggest Movers
1 | The Tigers still haven't lost more than three straight all season, as they ended their three-game losing streak Sunday. | -- | 49-30 | |
2 | Quite an encouraging return from Emmet Sheehan last week while Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow have gotten good updates. The Dodgers are going to run away with the West in the second half. | 2 | 48-31 | |
3 | The loss Saturday snapped a run during which the Phillies won eight of nine games. Before that, they had lost 10 of 12. Before that, they had won 11 of 12. Man, can a team be more hot and cold? | 3 | 47-31 | |
4 | Pete Crow-Armstrong is now the fastest Cubs player ever to reach 20-20, meaning, yes, he's on pace to be a 40-40 guy at age 23. | 1 | 46-31 | |
5 | Their lead was as high as seven games. They were up 6 ½ games through June 3. Now there are three teams closer than that. Really rough timing on that offensive funk, Yanks. | -- | 45-32 | |
6 | If there is a concern here, it would be the rotation depth due to all the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti won't be out a lot longer, though, while Luis Garcia and J.P. France are both working their way back from major surgeries. Things could all sort out rather well. | 1 | 45-33 | |
7 | Juan Soto's multi-homer game on Saturday meant he tied Jimmie Foxx for the most before age 27. Even in a down year he's special (and the year isn't even close to being over). | 5 | 46-32 | |
8 | It's only been two MLB starts but, man, there's some serious electricity in that arm of Jacob Misiorowski. | 2 | 43-35 | |
9 | The timing of the Red Sox visiting the Giants after the Rafael Devers trade was pretty fun. And then Devers clubbed a two-run homer in a one-run Giants win on Saturday. Again, fun. | 1 | 44-34 | |
10 | Keep an eye on Ryan Pepiot. In his last 11 starts, he has a 2.30 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 66 ⅔ innings. | 1 | 43-35 | |
11 | Maybe a good sign? Fernando Tatis Jr.'s home run on Saturday was his first since May 27. | -- | 42-35 | |
12 | Remember Bo Bichette's power outage to start the season? He didn't hit a home run until May 3. That's 32 games before he hit his first homer in 2025. Since then? He's hit 11 in 45 games. I'd say he's back. Just in time, too, since free agency awaits after this season. | -- | 41-36 | |
13 | Amid all the hoopla with the Devers trade and Alex Bregman's injury and the performance of the rookies, Jarren Duran is significantly worse than he was last year. They could sure use the 2024 version moving forward. | 3 | 40-39 | |
14 | The Cardinals finally get a crack at the Cubs this week. For the first time this season. Ridiculous. | 3 | 42-36 | |
15 | What more could you ask of Cal Raleigh? This has gotten ridiculous. Maybe get him some more help. | 3 | 39-37 | |
16 | The Reds are maddeningly inconsistent and haven't been more than four games above or below .500 all season. Given that we're almost at the halfway point, I think the writing is on the wall here. It's a mediocre baseball team. | 3 | 40-38 | |
17 | Zac Gallen now has a 5.60 ERA and leads the majors in earned runs allowed. He leads the NL in walks, too. Especially now with Corbin Burnes out, it is imperative for the D-backs' playoff hopes that Gallen gets fixed. | 3 | 39-38 | |
18 | In 2021 and 2023, the Guardians finished below .500 and missed the playoffs. In 2022 and 2024, they won 90+ games and won the AL Central. Are they really doing an even and odd thing? Maybe the two wins over the weekend set them back on course to avoiding it. | 2 | 39-37 | |
19 | Unfortunately -- since I predicted them the win the AL Central -- everything about this team just screams average at best right now. | 2 | 38-40 | |
20 | In all likelihood, in Jacob deGrom's next start, he'll surpass 92 innings pitched on the season, which would mean his highest mark since 2019 (when he went over 200 for the third straight year). It's nice to have him back on a full-time basis. | 5 | 38-40 | |
21 | Every time things look like they are turning around this season, another gut punch happens. The latest is the Chris Sale injury. | 2 | 35-41 | |
22 | Are you ready for a few weeks of "should the Orioles trade Adley Rutschman" talk? It's coming. | -- | 33-44 | |
23 | Zach Neto has the potential to be a 30-30 player. The only Angels to ever get there? Mike Trout and Bobby Bonds. | 1 | 37-40 | |
24 | As the season wears on, that 13-game winning streak looks more and more fluky. The Twins have been one of the worst teams in baseball outside of that. | 5 | 37-40 | |
25 | It's been a rough go so far from Eury Pérez in his return from Tommy John surgery, but keep in mind he's only 22. | 1 | 31-45 | |
26 | There's rightfully been a lot of focus on how the Pirates don't win enough with Paul Skenes, but Mitch Keller is a fine mid-rotation starter pitching to just about league average run prevention this season and he's 1-10. He has a better ERA than last season, when he was 11-12, and 2023, when he was 13-9. | 1 | 31-48 | |
27 | Hopefully Denzel Clarke learns how to hit soon because there is no more exciting defensive player in all of baseball. | 1 | 32-48 | |
28 | Reminder: The Nats were only two games under .500 heading into this month. They were 30-33 after a win on June 6! | 1 | 32-46 | |
29 | One of the best things that could happen for this organization this season is getting a good haul for Luis Robert Jr. And he's hitting .188/.271/.310 with 0.0 WAR. | -- | 25-53 | |
30 | Last week's sign that apocalypse is upon us? The Rockies won four games in a row, scoring 10 runs in a game twice and this all happened on the road. | -- | 18-60 |