Chelsea fate in own hands & Villa hope - six teams in top-five hunt

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Marc CucurellaImage source, Getty Images

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Marc Cucurella kept Chelsea's Champions League hopes in their own hands

Emlyn Begley

BBC Sport journalist

Chelsea have Champions League qualification in their own hands and Aston Villa moved into the top five as both teams won in the Premier League on Friday.

The Blues looked as if they were going to drop down to sixth before Marc Cucurella's header earned them a 1-0 win over Manchester United.

Aston Villa, who would have had their fate in their hands had Cucurella not scored, beat Tottenham 2-0.

Unai Emery's side are up to fifth, but sixth-placed Manchester City, one point below them, play Bournemouth on Tuesday (20:00 BST) in their game in hand.

Chelsea know a win at Nottingham Forest on the final day would seal a Champions League spot, but seventh-placed Forest are still in the hunt themselves.

Cucurella said: "Step by step we are creating something special and now only two games left to achieve something special.

"The most important thing is it depends on us so we have to play the game on Sunday [25 May] and then we are thinking about the [Conference League] final [against Real Betis]."

Aston Villa will probably have to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford and hope rivals drop points.

"We can get Champions League, fantastic," said Villa boss Emery.

"We are wishing to continue in the season we are doing. We are now in a good moment."

England will have six teams in next season's Champions League - the top five in the Premier League and the winners of the Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham.

The bonus fifth spot through the league came as a result of English teams' good performances in Europe this season - with Spain also gaining one.

Arsenal host Newcastle on Sunday (16:30 BST) in a game that could go a long way to deciding another place or two.

The Gunners would seal their spot with a win, while a draw would practically make it safe because of their superior goal difference.

Newcastle would go up to second with a win and take them close to sealing a Champions League place.

If Arsenal lose that game, they could yet finish outside the Champions League places, despite having seemingly had second place sewn up for months.

However, they do play rock bottom Southampton on the final day.

FA Cup finalists Manchester City have to get at least a point on Tuesday against Bournemouth to go back into the top five.

While six sides wrestle over the remaining up-for-grab spots, Liverpool have long been guaranteed Champions League football and have already won the Premier League.

Forest's chances are now quite slim and they visit West Ham this Sunday (14:15) knowing a defeat would end their hopes. They sit four points off the top five.

The prize of a place in the Champions League has added extra spice to Wednesday's Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham in Bilbao.

Both have endured wretched Premier League seasons and sit 16th and 17th respectively in the competition, but a highly lucrative crack at Europe's elite is nonetheless within touching distance.

The Premier League table (second to 11th)

What do the pundits say about top-five race?

Former Liverpool midfielder Jamie Redknapp on Sky Sports: "It's beautiful. The pressure is on Manchester City.

"It could be a big play-off between Chelsea and Forest. You could take it on another level and look at Arsenal."

Ex-Manchester United captain Roy Keane added: "Man City should be able to deal with the scenario. Wouldn't it be amazing if Newcastle win at Arsenal? It is really exciting."

Who do Champions League contenders still have to play?

Arsenal: Newcastle (H); Southampton (A)

Newcastle: Arsenal (A); Everton (H)

Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (A)

Aston Villa: Manchester United (A)

Manchester City: Bournemouth (H); Fulham (A)

Nottingham Forest: West Ham (A); Chelsea (H)

What are the chances?

Chances of Champions League qualification, according to statisticians Opta:

  • Arsenal: 99.8%

  • Newcastle: 92.5%

  • Manchester City: 87.2%

  • Chelsea: 60%

  • Aston Villa: 49.2%

  • Nottingham Forest: 11.3%

How much is Champions League qualification worth?

A good season in the Champions League can earn teams about £100m. Teams would get £16m without even needing to pick up a point.

Each point they earn in the league phase pockets them an extra £600,000 and each place in the 36-team table is worth over £200,000.

Each knockout round that teams reach, excluding the play-offs, means an extra £10m at least.

What other positions will qualify for Europe?

Sixth place, at the moment, is the only guaranteed Europa League spot through the league - but more places are likely to become available.

The winners of Saturday's FA Cup final between Manchester City and Crystal Palace (16:30) will qualify for the Europa League.

However, if that is City - and they finish in a European place as seems likely - then seventh in the Premier League would become a Europa spot.

Newcastle have a minimum guarantee of a Conference League place after winning the Carabao Cup - but they will hope not to need it.

If the Magpies finish in a European qualifying position in the league - reaching the Champions League or Europa League - then their Conference League spot goes to the league.

That will be either seventh place, or eighth place, depending on the identity of the FA Cup winners.

There is a scenario where that spot becomes a Europa League place instead - if Chelsea win the Conference League final in Wroclaw and finish outside the top five.

If that happened, England would not have a team in the Conference League. The Blues would be guaranteed a Europa League place at least, if they beat Betis on Wednesday, 28 May - a game which comes after the final day of the Premier League campaign.

And who is battling for these places?

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are already guaranteed a European place - but it remains to be seen which competition they go into.

Brentford currently occupy eighth place in the Premier League, which is more than likely to be a European place unless Palace win the FA Cup.

But the Bees are only above Brighton on goal difference, with Bournemouth two points behind and Fulham four points off.

Brentford host Fulham on Sunday (15:00) with the Cottagers needing to win that to have any hope of Europe.

Who do Europa/Conference League hopefuls have to play?

Brentford: Fulham (H); Wolves (A)

Brighton: Liverpool (H); Tottenham (A)

Bournemouth: Manchester City (A); Leicester (H)

Fulham: Brentford (A); Manchester City (H)

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