2025 NBA playoff odds: Back underdog Knicks to cover in Game 4

The Knicks were fortunate to rally from a 20-point deficit in Game 3 to beat the Pacers in Indiana, outscoring them 36-20 in the final quarter. 

In a bizarre turn of events, they did it without Jalen Brunson, who had a terrible game. He went 6-for-18 from the field in a playoff-low 31 minutes due to being in foul trouble.

That doesn’t seem like a recipe that will be duplicated in Game 4.

The Pacers are favored by three points, but I think this is another good spot to bet on the Knicks. 

Here's something that stands out from Game 3: The Pacers were just 5-for-25 on 3-point attempts. For just the second time in the postseason (13 games), Indiana shot worse than its opponent from beyond the arc. The last time this happened was in the first round, in Game 3 against the Bucks. That ended in a loss. 

Here’s the weird part: This season, the Pacers were not an extraordinary 3-point shooting team. They were the ninth-best 3-point shooting team in the league (36.8%). They were only 21st in 3-point field goal attempts. 

Yet, through 13 playoff games, they are the most prolific team from deep (39.6%). Indy's percentage was above 40% before the 5-for-25 debacle in Game 3.

Will the Pacers continue to punch above their weight class from deep? 

Aaron Nesmith, the Game 1 hero who went 8-for-9 from 3, was only 1-for-3 in Game 3 before turning an ankle. Pascal Siakam was the Game 2 hero. In that contest, he had 39 points and went 3-for-5 from 3. In Game 3, he was a mere 0-for-1 from deep.

The sample size of 82 games vs. 13 games is somewhat eye-popping.

The Knicks, meanwhile, were grasping at straws in Game 3. 

They were juggling the starting lineup (Mitchell Robinson for Josh Hart) and bizarrely playing veterans Delon Wright and Landry Shamet significant minutes off the bench. Those guys usually only play in blowouts.

The Knicks look desperate. The Pacers are desperate for 3-pointers to continue to fall.

PICK: Knicks (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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